Estimation of Wind Power Prediction Intervals Using Stochastic Methods and Artificial Intelligence Model Ensembles
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper describes different methods to estimate the uncertainty of wind power forecasts in terms of prediction intervals. The single methods and an ensemble average model have been applied to shortest-term wind power forecasts (forecast horizon = 1, 2, 4 & 8 h) of 62 spatially distributed wind farms in Germany to obtain intervals with a nominal reliability of 90, 95 and 98 %. Furthermore the “ISET online model” was used to calculate the prediction interval for the total wind power generation of Germany with a reliability exceeding 99 %. The skill of the resultant intervals is investigated with regard to reliability and sharpness. It was found that the skill depends on the quality of the underlying wind power forecast.
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